I'm sniffing an air of "California syndrome" when it comes to HVAC products. The literature says 3-5x more efficient than my existing furnace. I believe that may be true in SF climate. But is it true where I live, in Northern Maine?
From an (opinionated) Youtube channel out of the midwest (Chicago area which isn't known for being warm) - Why Heat Pumps are Immensely Important Right Now https://youtu.be/MFEHFsO-XSI
I'm not questioning if they are viable, I'm questioning the blanket claims and the direct comparison. What kind of furnace? Natural gas? Oil? A heat pump in Maine is not going to be 3-5x more cost effective than a natural gas furnace in Maine. In fact, it's currently more expensive than natural gas, and at parity with oil furnaces. https://www.maine.gov/energy/heating-fuel-prices
And you can update the values there. There are some approaches that are even more cost effective.
I will also note on the url that you provided:
> Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) and Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP): Final fuel prices (i.e., far right column) reflect the increased efficiency of HPWHs and ASHPs. According to Efficiency Maine Trust and when compared to electric resistance heating, HPWHs are 2.98 times more efficient and ASHPs are 2.93 times more efficient. To obtain a theoretical and relative fuel price per unit, divide the price per kWh by 2.98 or 2.93 depending on your technology (e.g., $0.2099 for an ASHP is like paying $0.0716 for electric resistance heating).
The numbers in the heating cost comparison roughly match the ones that you have. A natural gas furnace can be as cost effective. The point with the heat pump in part isn't the cost effective nature for the residential user - even if in parity, but that in addition to being similarly priced it is more environmentally sound to use a heat pump than to burn hydrocarbons for heat.
The comparison that we're making above is also natural gas vs heat pump. When you get the rural locations, natural gas isn't always an option and so then you need to change to the propane and heating oil versions.
From the WaPo article:
> “Oh, hell no,” Casagranda said, when asked recently if she missed her propane furnace. As part of the experiment, the agency promised residents they could have their fossil-fuel-burning systems back if they didn’t like the results. So far, none of the homeowners have wanted to go back, according to agency officials, and Casagranda said she is more than satisfied.
> ...
> But oil’s market share is falling. Whereas 74 percent of the state’s homes relied on oil to keep warm in the winter of 2010, according to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, that figure had fallen to 60 percent by 2021.
> ...
> Despite the bitter cold, a drive up U.S. Route 1 reveals a quiet transformation underway with major implications for climate change. Mainers who have heated their homes, diners, libraries and churches with oil and propane for decades are turning to an alternative source of warmth.
You may be educating others on this topic, but you're not educating me. No one runs resistive electric heaters in Maine. Is that common in California? Is that why the startup above is comfortable saying "it's 3-5 times more efficient than [my] current furnace?"
Air source heat pumps are very popular here. We have two. They are great technology, but they are not a panacea. The majority of the electricity we generate comes from natural gas in New England because we don't have access to amazing renewables like is available in California. Also, they are a point heating source, so many folks who retrofit end up buying 3-4 of them to get full coverage in old poorly insulated homes. If the product above is $12k, we're getting into $36k-$48k which is almost double the cost of installing a ground source heat pump which is vastly more efficient during the winter compared to an air source.
This further proves my point: the startup above is clearly looking at this problem from a California context. They should get that under control immediately because the realities in the rest of the country will be shocking to them once they have to take customer calls outside their mediterranean climate.
All I'm looking for is a heat pump that can maintain a COP of 3.0 or higher down to -20f, can be easily controlled via MQTT on my home network OR via standard 3 wire thermostat, does not use the cloud for any of it's core functionality, and does not require an HVAC license to buy parts and see technical manuals.
Many moons ago I found myself making parts for the audiophile community. Eventually I got in to making complete headphones. Designing and building audiophile headphones is a multi-modal skill that is very engaging. I was pretty good at it. But I had to exit the audiophile world because it was too crazy for me.
I would get messages from customers that were completely insane. And if you say "yo, that's insane" word gets out and it damages your brand. So you're rewarded for perpetuating these weird myths.
If I could build these really cool headphones without having to deal with audiophiles, I probably would. It was challenging and a lot of fun, and I was pretty good at it.
