We're trying to fix that at kalshi.com :)

We don't do sports

If you're for everyobody, then you're for nobody!

LedgerX team is more tech savvy and higher execution team. We considered all options and LedgerX was the superior one for our needs.

LedgerX is fully separated from rest of FTX from financial perspective by virtue of CFTC regulation, so no impact on us!

There's a non-trivial chance we might be available in Euro area next year, but early to tell right now as we're focused on US.

We'll be exploring AND/OR and conditional markets at some point... liquidity permitting.

It's a prediction market in some ways... though prediction markets have been historically associated with unregulated venues etc.

We're fully regulated by the federal government as a derivatives exchange, and that's a big difference in an of itself (it took us years to figure out the right model to offer derivatives dynamically, with events as underlying). Regulation allows us to plug into the financial ecosystem, and offer the asset class to hedge funds, market makers, brokers, etc.

For all intent and purposes, we're a financial exchange that offers derivatives on a broad range of things that have been offered before.

So it's a prediction market but you aren't legally allowed to be called a prediction market. In much the same way that Pyramid Schemes can operate as "Multi-Level Marketing", eventually the regulators will catch on and shut things down.

We are perfectly allowed to be called a prediction market. That is not what I was saying in my text.

We are fully regulated by the CFTC. Our ethos has been do regulation from day 1 and we spent 3 years getting regulated before we launched a single product. Regulators are already caught up and are working with us constructively to expand this marketplace and asset class.

Yepp! and other big players like CME.

I'm super excited about that: we finally opened the space in a way that is meaningful enough for the big players to start taking note and join.

I think the events trading ecosystem is still very much in its infancy and there will be a lot of movement in the space in the next few years.

Good question.

Among a number of other safeguards that I mentioned in a reply above, we often use well established and reputable data sources that either 1) already have restrictions on their employees trading on the event or 2) we enter into data licensing agreements with and require those restrictions to be put.

We also run KYC and pass all the participants through Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs) list, which allows us to flag people that are potentially close with a lot of our data sources (BLS, Nasa, MTA, etc.).

Our surveillance systems also do a great job of flagging weird activity (more in the post above) and anyone who we find to have done something wrong can be fined all the way to criminally prosecuted by the CFTC.

In short, a lot of similar safeguards to what you have against insider trading in stocks.

Augur tried this and doesn't seem to have gained a lot traction doing so. Any staking schemes that were developed were relatively easily gamed and that led to distrust in the system.

We, like traditional financial exchanges, define the contracts upfront with clear rules on how they will be settled, then follow the letter of the law very strictly when settling a market.

In general, we've found market certainty to be more important that accuracy: ie. having pre-defined rules that everyone can agree on and that are pre-set is more important than those rules being the "correct rules" (not that having correct rules isn't important).