I have no opinion on AMD or how it compares to Intel or Nvidia, but this kind of enthusiasm about exponential growth reminds me of how Cisco was the largest company in the world by market cap in 2000.
I agree. The last three AMD booms have tracked to the last three asset bubble periods (1999-2000, 2005-2006, now). They have no earnings to support the present $14 billion market cap, much less higher. When this latest asset bubble party ends, AMD will tank again. They're supposedly in a boom period due to demand for their products, yet they're struggling to even get back to where their sales were in 2014 (when their stock was 1/5th what it is now). It's nothing more than the latest iteration of stock market mania (where stocks like Activision carry near 50 PE ratios while sporting 5-10% type earnings growth).
Cisco is still one of the more remarkable stock stories I've seen in the last two decades. Something like ten straight quarters of accelerating revenue growth, quarter over quarter, leading up to 68% growth for the third quarter of 2000. Three quarters later their quarter over quarter growth had evaporated down toward zero.
That same shock deceleration basically killed Lucent, Nortel and Sun Microsystems. The three were worth around $600 billion together during the bubble. Sun of course struggled on as their business melted, but they were a shadow of their former self by 2009. Oracle nearly got caught in the same trap (also having a crazy ~$200 billion valuation during the bubble), instead they went on a competitor acquisition spree and created as much of a moat as they could. 17 years later, their stock is finally back to where it was during the bubble (in nominal terms).
