I actually am pretty in-the-dark about the UX of the Kinect and how it works with the Xbox. I don't have a Kinect myself yet, for example. I have an Xbox but haven't turned it on in several months, mainly because it's so loud (like, helicopter loud. Are newer Xboxen quieter?). I'm not much of a gamer, other than Portal and Katamari a few years ago. I've yet to watch an episode of Oprah, either. :)
I do hope that the Kinect cost of materials is low enough that MSFT doesn't lose money on each Kinect they sell. But I have to think that the tinkerer/maker community is much smaller than the mass market for video gamers. My guess is that Kinect purchases for Linux will be a barely blip on MSFT's radar.
The new XBox S (the matte black one) is much quieter than the old XBoxes. This YouTube video gives some idea of the difference, throwing in a listen with a PS3 as well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5QpoKwVcSk
The Kinect experience so far is targeted at a wider audience than the traditional gamer. My mother, for example, absolutely loves the Kinect. She particularly likes the Tai Chi and yoga trainers in the "Your Shape" game. I didn't expect it to take off with her the way it did, but it's the first video game system where she really wants to play it.
Another thing: there are several different interfaces embodied in the launch titles around the same basic Kinect capabilities and interactions. If you want to develop new user experiences, now is a good time to check out what people are doing before everything settles into place. So it's worth at least visiting a friend who has one.
(Disclosure: I work at Microsoft. Speaking only for myself here, of course.)
I do hope that the Kinect cost of materials is low enough that MSFT doesn't lose money on each Kinect they sell. But I have to think that the tinkerer/maker community is much smaller than the mass market for video gamers. My guess is that Kinect purchases for Linux will be a barely blip on MSFT's radar.