> Headhunters and corporate boards often look for CEOs with a track record of creating value at another company when choosing whom to hire. But if past performance doesn’t predict future results, then they might be looking at an irrelevant variable.

I don't understand this. I would imagine there is lot of accumulated knowledge, connections, network, skills etc. that are involved in taking day to day or strategic decisions.

Not irrelevant at all if my money was at stake.