I think you're right on. Ive and Jobs share a similar background (in design, if you consider the calligraphy story) and Ive's personality has been really ingrained in the latest Apple creations. Besides, Apple has already all the structure in place to handle a CEO with less business/operations experience and more focused on products. If Eric isn't coming to Apple (and to me, he is more needed at Microsoft anyway), Ive would make a great CEO.
People keep saying this, but Eric isn't remotely as talented as Jobs. I can't imagine they've given a seconds consideration as having him in the top spot.
Design =/= Product. I doubt Ive had the foresight Jobs had when he foresaw the PC as the hub and had the guts to admit MS won the war and not chase after a losing battle. Not only that, Ive had never proven to lead. AAPL will tank if he's made the successor instead of Cook or someone else who's more proven.
Steve did much more than just sitting on a calligraphy class, from the moulded plastic design used in the Apple II through to significant inputs in the original Macintosh. All that happened much before Ive was at Apple, though I agree that Steve does not have the same formal background in design as Ive.