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Not really, they just fitted the cubic to log-deaths and exponentiated them again.


Cubic has to go to +infinity on either the right or left. Exponentiating doesn't help with that.


exp(-infinity) = 0


And exp(+infinity) = +infinity, so it has to go to +infinity on one side.


Yes, on the right side, https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/16/what-a-dif...

So in addition to log-exp to prevent projections going negative, they clipped the end date at 4 Aug to prevent it from going back up to +inf




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