I wouldn’t assume it’s going to happen - ever seen eastern Connecticut or Maryland, upstate NY, etc.? There are plenty of places which have been waiting for that eventually since the 1800s, with nice downtowns and plenty of industrial space but simply an insufficient number of ways people can make a living.
There’s a wicked critical mass factor where you need enough now to be able to get people to start businesses there rather than moving, and there’s a nasty feedback cycle with shrinking tax bases cutting into city services which is hard to break out of.
SF and NYC probably haven’t priced out enough diversity to get through this but there are a lot of cities which only need a couple of employers to fold or relocate to start having big challenges. Attracting teleworkers quickly enough could help but a lot of old industrial and even office space will require a lot of work to convert into residences.
There’s a wicked critical mass factor where you need enough now to be able to get people to start businesses there rather than moving, and there’s a nasty feedback cycle with shrinking tax bases cutting into city services which is hard to break out of.
SF and NYC probably haven’t priced out enough diversity to get through this but there are a lot of cities which only need a couple of employers to fold or relocate to start having big challenges. Attracting teleworkers quickly enough could help but a lot of old industrial and even office space will require a lot of work to convert into residences.