Yup. I learned long ago that having an insider's perspective doesn't necessarily help me predict where the market will move.

An expert's perspective can certainly be helpful, but if market prices are set by non-experts (or, experts in other fields) then it may just lead to consistently wrong answers per the tenets of keynesian economics.

Like the device a company sells actually working at all...

I'm not disagreeing by the way. You are correct. And the stock traders probably made the correct guess about the company profits.

IIRC Doge is one of the top 3 best performing assets in 2021.

Does HN like Doge? I helped use it to send Jamaica to the Olympics in 2014...

Probably partly because literally half the market is passive investors who dont react to any news.