I respect Musk more than many commenters you see around. I understand he's not the billionaire savior many people seem to believe. I remember him mentioning something about how the sub couldn't go wrong because if the kids got there and the water rose, it should get where the kids were. How feasible was it, really?
It was never even remotely feasible. Musk's design was simply too large to fit through the restrictions in the cave. It's the kind of nonsense that only someone with no real diving experience could come up with.
Musk had no diving experience, and no knowledge of these caves. He was working from incomplete knowledge and intuition.
Almost all of Musk's critics in the matter were working from no knowledge of the caves and little to no diving experience. Some of Musk's critics were working from the best available knowledge in both areas.
But this diver points out exactly what Musk intuited. There was a much easier route for all those boys to have hiked into the cave. Musk's submarine would probably have worked over that route. But nobody had knowledge of that route at the time.
One solution would have been for Musk or somebody to build little robots that could explore the caves in zero light with sonar mapping equipment. The robots would need to navigate and operate underwater and abovewater in very difficult terrain. It seems like an impractical pursuit under the circumstances. Why even mention such a ridiculous idea? Well, why not? Why not put all options on the table. You can dismiss the "Have Scotty beam them out" stuff immediately. But they were talking about establishing supply lines for months to keep them alive until the water went down. They were talking about drilling holes 1km+ to hopefully tap the chamber where those kids were. They were talking all sorts of stuff.
And yes, somebody was talking body-sized submarines. And somebody might have been talking about dive robots. And sonar mapping.
I was glued to my news feed with a bag of potato chips and so were almost all of you. I don't know diving and I don't know those caves.
I think the divers who rescued them are mental. I mean really crazy. I mean, seriously, who in their right mind would do stuff like that? I think the effort just to find the kids was risk-taking at a scale that terrifies me. Their brains do not work like mine. Thank goodness.
Musk's brain doesn't work like mine, either. I'm not going to criticize the divers. They are clearly heroes. Musk doesn't come off as a hero in this story. But I'm not going to criticize him either. His intuition was right. He did more than click reload on his browser for two weeks. Nobody else liked his idea. Isn't that the story of his life?
In the end, his idea was one of many that were rejected. Instead they went with the crazy idea to tie everybody up, knock them out, and hope they don't accidentally knock their masks off. Who's bright idea was that? Well, it worked.
Let's not bag on the people who made tremendous efforts to rescue the kids. And let's not bag on the people who made some efforts that didn't produce results. And please don't bag on me, who did nothing.
You don’t seem to understand the power that a platform like Musk’s has. What if those humble cave divers thought Elon knows his stuff and pursued his plan instead of theirs? What if they got pressured by outside entities, whomever they maybe, and were told to follow him?
When it doesn’t go well “he’s just putting options on the table”. When it does he’s colossal genius?
The bigger issue people point out is Musk’s inability to know limits of his knowledge. He is naive and that’s news to a lot of people
You don’t seem to understand the power that a platform like Musk’s has. He put forward his idea. He built a prototype. He did initial testing. He put out a lot of work (or paid/persuaded others to do so). He was mocked and criticized and rejected. We don't have to play what if on your scenario. We can see the real world results.
If you want to play what if... What if he provided dive robots and body submarines and mapping experts? What if it took him a week to map the caves, find a workable route, and save those kids? What if just one kid had his mask scraped off using the technique they actually did use? What if one kid got stuck and the helper got killed trying to get them unstuck?
The what if game is fun for me with optimistic what ifs. It's a terrible game with pessimistic what ifs. It's largely pointless either way. But sometimes the optimistic version is useful. Sometimes somebody develops dive robots after the fact because the what ifs capture their imagination in a good way.
More people should reject their limits and reach for big things. I don't think Musk is the most amazing person in the world. I realize he has a downside (like we all do). But I hope he inspires people to dream big and accomplish big. That requires optimism. Sometimes even naive optimism.
"The reasonable man adapts himself to the world. The unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." - George Bernard Shaw
The heros that rescued those kids came up with a preposterous and unreasonable plan. We could have ignored them, too. And ignored the drilling crews, and the dudes with miles of hose and giant pumps. We could have said that any rescue would require an unreasonable effort.
It sure is easy to slip "we" all over that paragraph. I certainly don't deserve any credit for the decisions that were made and the heroics that saved the day.
But if we reject all the unreasonable efforts, we are left with the status quo. That would mean those kids wouldn't have even been located, let alone rescued. Thank goodness for people who flew around the world to do crazy things. Thank goodness for divers who ditched their wives on their anniversary and flew over there just on the chance they might carry the bottles for the Navy experts. Those are not reasonable actions.
Unreasonable people aren't always right. Maybe they're not even usually right. Maybe. But thank goodness for the times when progress depended on them and they didn't fail us by being reasonable.
This is conspiracy theory logic, thinking that the armchair theorist and the subject matter expert are on the same level.
You keep stressing that the plan was preposterous and unreasonable, as if everyone one over there just did whatever they wanted and nobody was coordinating. This was an unprecedented operation, but by that same logic was the first ever heart transplant "preposterous and unreasonable"?
There's a world of difference between picking the best of many risky plans, and shouting over better informed people to advance the plan that makes you look like a hero.
Yes! Now you're getting it. The first brain surgery was preposterous and audacious. The first pacemaker was crazy (You want to add batteries to my heart?).
Crazy ideas require crazy amounts of careful design, careful planning, careful execution. That's what makes them crazy. Along with the high probability of failure even with the greatest care. How many open heart surgery patients died before the first success? None? That's crazy!
You want to host the summer olympics in Yuma, AZ? That's crazy!
You want to build a giant reusable spaceship on the border of Mexico? That's crazy!
You want to drill a hole through somebody's skull to drain the swelling and relieve the pressure? That's crazy!
You want to cut a hole in somebody's throat so they can breath? That's crazy!
You want to plant 10 trillion trees to change the Earth's atmosphere? You're crazy!
You want to teach every child in the world how to read? Crazy!
Not all of those things are the best of many risky plans.
And quit pretending that somebody shouted over better informed people. I'm sure there were critics of all the plans. Some people might have shouted. Some might have quit in protest. Some pondered quietly. Some people were terrified but did it anyway. They planned and organized the best they could. And despite mistakes, and even spur-of-the-moment adlibs they pulled it off. Crazy!
They are crazy at the start. The ones that do succeed do so by having a plan. Not by trying to be crazy / rebel without a cause. We still don’t know all the variables. Those with experience knew some and ultimately executed on it. They were informed by hands-on experience. Note the governments and the navy SEAL units from multiple countries are getting involved with the operations. Imagine being whomever you are and advocating for your solution. What message are you sending? That everyone should haggle with these operational experts and get an answer for why their ideas wouldn’t work?
Don’t you think the time, attention and energy that these people expend dealing with famous cool guy’s ideas are ultimately resources that are taken away from the core operation.
Still, this Finnish diver did show remarkable restraint here.