That's the point. I don't think I'm qualified for the job, and yet it was obvious inflation wasn't transitory. The fundamental drivers with money supply and in particular, velocity, pointed this out clearly. A quick look at travel statistics in summer 2021 made it clear that a majority of the public was returning to pre-pandemic spending habits. She clearly isn't qualified, and simply failed upward into working for the administration. You don't have to look hard, far, or even outside of Democratic affiliated economists to find those who were far more accurate than the Fed, including the aforementioned Larry Summers, or Steven Rattner.
Your welcome to be critical of my statement, but where's your criticism of the people being paid high salaries in positions of power who utterly failed to react in a timely manner (when many many economists with tons of credentials were telling them to) and have now forced us into a worse situation?
I think your statement is dumb. Inflation was exacerbated by a large war in 2022 that sparked an energy crisis. Failing to acknowledge that is just naive.
You don't win any points for saying X is inevitable when X is occurs for reasons completely outside your expected scope. That's just luck.
Those were definitely drivers for the inflationary spiral in consumer goods, but we've had massive inflation for a long time; ever since QE started. It's just that the inflation has been relatively hidden in speculative assets (homes, equities, crypto).
The parent is correct in their assessments of the market and the transitory inflation. TBT and TTT were no brainers at the start of the transitory dialogue because everyone knew it wasn't.
You're on point here. Your analysis will be wasted on the dunning-kruger comment you're replying to.
Apparently Larry Summers, probably the greatest living former treasury secretary and architect of the only balanced budget in my lifetime, was "lucky".
It's absolutely not luck and you are betraying an ideological point of view. It's obvious you never studied economics and you're just sitting here parroting partisan talking points. Anyone with common sense is aware of the Ukraine invasion being inflationary on European energy supplies, and knock down effects on things such as grains and fertilizers and other commodities. But those of us with a background who understand the dynamics of inflation knew this in 2021 long before Putin invaded. It's simple math:
Inflation is a product of money supply and monetary velocity. Money supply was already grossly inflated and monetary velocity was quickly gaining steam as the vaccine was rolled out.
You should ask yourself if you have any idea what you're talking about before adopting a negative tone in the future. Frankly it personifies Dunning Kruger arrogance to attribute a simple mathematical prediction shared widely by experts to luck. Projecting your utter lack of expertise on this topic on to everyone else is ridiculous.
Ok, and I think you're "betraying an ideological point of view" when you agree there was a major inflationary force so large that "anyone with common sense" is aware of it, but fail to do the elementary math that if you had inflation X with a major inflationary event; then in the absence of the major inflationary event, inflation would almost certainly have been a lot lower. Imo, to the point of being negligible.
The price of energy is a fundamental input to the global economy. When the price of energy goes up, the price of everything goes up as a supply shock. I don't think you're a dumbass for thinking otherwise. I do think you're a dumbass for asserting whatever this mess of a post is.
Citing "a simple mathematical prediction shared widely by experts to luck" is pretty dumb as well. Economists are hardly a uniform entity. Do you truly believe I could not find an equal army of qualified experts with differing mathematical predictions?
Circling back to you think you're more qualified than Yellen, mr kroog. Look out. Bachelor of Science in economics over here. this guy wrote code!
Your welcome to be critical of my statement, but where's your criticism of the people being paid high salaries in positions of power who utterly failed to react in a timely manner (when many many economists with tons of credentials were telling them to) and have now forced us into a worse situation?