successor to steam locomotives are not just only electric locomotive but cars, planes, rockets. In few decades we might use more often rockets such as SpaceX for moving cargo or travel.
Sure maybe in 200 years we won't get AGI but current technologies that we call AI will be massively improved and I would bet by that time software development as we currently know it will be a solved problem
The majority of "difficulty" in software development is not writing the code. It's specification. And while that may or may not be solved by LLM or other AI tech, we're so far off that it's not even a thing right now.
Not long ago, all machine tools was made by hand. When we got vastly improved CNC machines, but we still need the expertise to create the files the CNC machine needs. I'm betting that SW development will be the same. We still need engineers to understand the context the software operates in, and with that knowledge the engineer can prompt an AI to generate the first draft of the code in many small chunks that needs to be assembled.
Sure maybe in 200 years we won't get AGI but current technologies that we call AI will be massively improved and I would bet by that time software development as we currently know it will be a solved problem