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Whats the base rate of dictators being Hitler, and what’s the false positive rate of that approach? That thinking seems like it would’ve gotten us into every late 20th and early 21st war that are widely regarded as mistakes.


100%ish?


Saddam was going to take over Europe? Assad was going to take over Europe?


Only one dictator ever was literally Adolf Hitler but that's a meaningless comparison. Saddam and Assad both tried to do holocausts so in my view that makes them Hitlers. I think that is a much more useful practical definition of "a Hitler" than, you know, being named Adolf and being born in the middle of Europe.




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