For a start it shows that the intel is still happening, so it’s not a cost-cutting exercise, it’s a choice to not share when they could. Why would you blind Ukraine, one of your allies to the advantage of your enemy?
Next, your other allies may be getting matching data from other sources so it puts them in a position of running foul of the ban in the eyes of the US when they didn’t. We’ve seen how this administration treats its allies, and how trump reacts when he thinks he’s been slighted. The situation is precarious to say the least.
I want to paint a picture of what type of "ally" the US is in normal circumstances, from a Dutch perspective. A superpower versus a speckle of a country.
The growth of our biggest airport had to be capped for various reasons. That means less landing rights. So we go airline by airline and inform them they can land 5% less. They were all frustrated but understood the pain had to be shared.
Not for the US though. Mere hours after the first American airline was informed, Biden's Washington was on the line: cap any landing rights of any American airline and no Dutch plane will ever land on US soil again.
Similar: repeated visits of US representatives coming to tell us exactly which ASML machine can be exported to where and expecting immediate compliance. Even if you agree with the reasons, the arrogance is striking as is the neglect in considering the costs to the business.
We host the international court of justice. But the US doesn't care, it doesn't acknowledge it.
The point of all these examples is that the US treats allies like shit even before Trump. There's no regard at all for the other side, it's power-play and dominance and rules not applying to the US.
The relationship doesn't persist out of friendship, mutual respect or "shared values". It persists because in the bigger picture it is probably still economically beneficial as alternatives are worse. As the Dutch say, the difference between being bitten by a dog or a cat.
The US as the leader of the free world is the very opposite of that as it comes to values. It's cruel and selfish to its "friends".
That was the status quo and thing are obviously infinitely worse now. I wish it was different. We should move towards each other and build a Super West. America First means Europe First means Canada First and so on. Everybody suffers.
Its not just one system and it's all classified. But you can look into the NRO and DIA. The headcount is possibly public.
Early in the war some of the provided intelligence leaked and it was just a list of the coordinates of every Russian SAM system in ukraine updated daily.
Watching this unfolding over the last weeks from Europe feels like a bad fever dream. The thing that scares me personally the most is not that the USA under Trump is telling Europe to care for their own security. That's expected and a talking point for many years and Europe sure did little to prepare for that.
What's scaring me is it sure looks like the USA is in a process of self-destruction that seems to result in them badly harming themselves. Any amount of soft-power over Europe is gone. It sure looked like the whole of Europe is happily migrating into USA clouds and USA brands will have growing percentage in cars and other goods. A big chunk of Europe military spending was going to the USA. F35 sold like hot bread.
Frankly I have no rational explanations for the tariffs for Canada and Mexico, neither do the experts here on local media. More is likely to come.
I'd like to put the all the KGB asset conspiracy talk away but with every day and with every headline I'm scratching my head and I don't see how this benefits the USA.
Russia won't honour it. Actually if all is destroyed and Trump is gone I expect some final humiliation from Putin. I just don't see how aligning with Russia is of longterm strategic interest to the USA. But maybe I'm missing something?
It feels like a fever dream here, too. Even if MAGA is removed from power in 2-4 years, our credibility in the world is destroyed for a generation.
There is so much hopelessness from my friends. What can we do? We're kind of waiting for some national movement to take hold, but where are the Democrats? Where are the calls for a national day to strike and protest? Why are we treating this like normal politics?
> We're kind of waiting for some national movement to take hold, but where are the Democrats?
If you are waiting for a national movement, its not going to happen.
If you want it to happen, you have to get out and make it.
The major political parties are big tent electoral coalitions, actual movements come from other places (whether existing organized groups or new emerging networks) and then gain the strnegth to be adopted by one or the other party, they don't usually come from the party leadership or committees, which are not structured around creating or nurturing broad social movements.
I say "for a generation" for two reasons. One, I'm an optimist and I want my country to not be a failure forever - and I am differentiating our foreign damage from the domestic damage which is more repairable in the short term.
Two, nothing is forever in the world, and countries can come back from pariah status. The US is still a military and economic powerhouse, it spans the oceans, it's the breadbasket of much of the world.
I think it will take some kind of electoral/structural reform for us to be taken seriously again.
They should be organizing in person meetings, having weekly fireside chats, calling for strikes and protests, something concrete that shows the country what they're doing and helping us the people participate, even if performatively at first. Protest and in person meetings are a morale boost.
Tbf I need to follow AOC and Sanders on social media and stay more in tune.
Why was there ever a second election? Why not just do it once after the revolution and accept the reality you got? In fact why have the revolution to begin with, why not accept the reality of life under British rule?
> In fact why have the revolution to begin with, why not accept the reality of life under British rule?
that 9% tax on foreign imports of tea?
but today's King has imposed taxes of 25% on foreign imports, but no-one's chucking cars into boston harbour
the US King is also far, far more powerful than George III ever was, as the 1688 Bill of Rights ended absolute monarchy in Great Britain
imagine the horror of the alternate history: the 13 colonies might have ended up like Canada,: slavery banned in 1834, dominion status leading to peaceful independence with workers rights, universal healthcare, mandatory vacations and no daily school shootings
The winds of politics change. People can, and will be, convinced as reality smacks them. It takes longer than expected but reality can never be perpetually denied by everyone.
The key for now is for Democrats to avoid the blame of the obvious problems coming up. Democrats cannot afford to be blamed by the upcoming Government Debt, Funding, Tax changes or possible shutdown.
Protests run the risk of drawing attention back to the Democrats and rallying MAGA to a shared enemy. I don't think that works. It seems like a reasonable political strategy to see how far Trump's team is willing to wreck the economy on their own.
The goal is to have MAGA split. We all know they have a different set of ideologies and are only unified in their hate of liberals.
As the debt balloons due to tax cuts, as Ukraine falls due to Trump's clearance, as TechBros cozy up to China and as wealth transfers to Bitcoin in the largest display of corruption of recent years, people will notice that MAGAs biggest enemies are fellow MAGAs.
The opinion of the Democrats is well known. It's not an awareness problem. Its a people didn't come out to vote problem.
The truth is that the American people voted for this. Until the American people are convinced that these policies are bad, no amount of meetings or protests will help.
Keep the eye on the prize: winning the 2026 midterm election and 2028 Presidential election. What's the best way to convince today's Americans that the policies Trump is pushing will harm the country?
> The opinion of the Democrats is well known. It's not an awareness problem.
> Until the American people are convinced that these policies are bad, no amount of meetings or protests will help
You've got that second part a bit backwards still. Until the American people are convinced that the policies of the Democrats (or another party) are themselves good, no amount of meetings or protests will help.
For sure, part of that is the negative Republican media machine making its followers think that Democratic reforms they personally rely on (eg "Obamacare") are something different than what they know. But a large part is also that Democratic platform, messaging, and follow-through just doesn't inspire.
I'll admit that's a tough nut to crack - things have gotten so far gone it's either sweeping plans that replace self-determinism with government grants ("socialism" if you're willing to steelman that rallying cry), fundamental but abstract things the average voter won't see the point of, or mild reforms that just temporarily increase breathing room while the underlying extractive dynamic catches up.
> But a large part is also that Democratic platform, messaging, and follow-through just doesn't inspire.
That's a media problem.
The bulk of media is squarely on the Republican side right now. A degree of convincing needs to be done to move media heads (Zuckerberg, Bezos maybe???) towards supporting and inspiring other stories.
Republicans have a media strategy. Its Macho man and bluster, bullying even. Democrats don't have one. But Democrats don't have powerful unified media heads like the Republicans who can spew out a consistent message.
Second this, apathy is one of pillars of Putin's regime over in Russia. If you don't oppose it in any capacity, you effectively support it. This is what Navalny meant with his "Final fight of good versus neutrality". Don't repeat our mistake, stay involved in politics and fight for your future.
Trump cutting the military and changing sides + reducing pensions for people should be enough by rough calculations ( 1 million active and 3,5 million active in 1968 ) is more than 3,5%.
I don't know how the mood currently is in the US though, but I would think most people find it insane.
Your problem is a structural crisis. You would need a reform of your voting system to effect a stabilization of the political system, o.e. abolish fptp and gerrymandering. I don't see that happen.
So you are fucked.
We need a system that allows a freer market of political parties. With two entrenched private organizations that are impossible to unseat, an extremist takeover of one is like taking over the country... Which is what has happened. Imagine a system where rational Republicans could have formed a breakaway conservative party and had a chance at success without being a spoiler.
And I think the new voting system has to have preference built in. I know approval voting is simple to explain and calculate, but I want to maximize the "expression of voter preference" as much as possible while keeping the process simple. Ranked choice has some issues but it is conceptually simple and eliminates the spoiler effect. And it's already in use in parts of the US.
"Ranked Choice" (ballot) needs to be retconned to the decision process of Ranked Pairs rather than Instant Runoff Voting.
It feels like pushing for this (and for effective government structures in general) at the state level is the main backstop we have.
Unless there happens to be some helicopter pilot that ends up taking his oath to defend the United States seriously, or some other exceptional event or sea change that stops the neofascists in their tracks, it seems a foregone conclusion that the federal government will have been thoroughly destroyed in two years.
Agreed on all fronts. The election reform needs to start at local and state level to get people used to the idea, and because it would be easier to do in the first place.
Ranked pairs seem like it would be cumbersome for "the average voter" to fill out on voting day if the number of candidates exceeds about four. And other methods like Schulze which do simple ranking but complicated math on the calculation are too math-y for "the average voter".
I'm open to ideas but I think in this country we need simple simple simple, while getting rid of the spoiler effect.
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EDIT: Since I have been throttled by the "You're posting too fast, thanks" passive aggressive message, I'll respond here.
I thought ranked pair method involved actually going through each pair and doing a 1v1 vote for every combination. If it is the same "input" as RCV, meaning a single list of preference, then I'm really interested.
Ranked Pairs calculation uses a Ranked Choice ballot. And I'd say Ranked Choice ballots should be designed such that people accustomed to plurality (and even multiple plurality - "pick any N") can fill in that kind of preference and have it appropriately interpreted.
It's not only about breakaway people. An appropriate political systems promotes centralism and punishes extremism - but FPTP combined with your loose candidate selection process does the opposite.
There is a large body of studies discussing optimal forms of democracy for newly established ones. The guidebook essentially recommends doing the exact opposite of what are you doing.
The best spin I could put on it is that it's a deliberate negotiating tactic - that Trump feels that, by threatening everything, he gets a more favorable deal from people who just want the chaos to stop.
Even if true, there are two problems with this approach. First, it may work well in New York real estate, but it is less clear that it works well in international diplomacy. Not every country wants their immediate future to be at risk from whatever flavor of hardball the president is currently employing; some want to insulate themselves from that risk as much as possible.
The second, related problem is that international relations are not a zero-sum game. America has gained more from an international order that is orderly and rules-following than it would from exploiting everyone else as hard as possible.
Stop overstating it as "KGB asset conspiracy talk", and it won't feel so unreasonable.
Trump repeatedly acts against the straightforward interests of the United States. Russia is well known for running propaganda campaigns to divide countries and install autocrats. It's foolish denial to think there isn't some kind of client relationship between Trump and Russia (and therefore China as well, Russia's senior partner in going up against US hegemony).
Europe has a set of primary interests, which to us have none, or a very remote relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies, the causes of which are essentially foreign to our concerns. Hence therefore it must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves, by artificial ties, in the ordinary vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations & collisions of her friendships, or enmities.
Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of European ambition, Rivalship, Interest, Humour or Caprice?
The entire globe is intertwined. Conflict anywhere has the very real possibility of becoming conflict everywhere. It's in every countries best interest to do what they can to maintain peace, no matter how far away from home that peace is.
"During the 'Maidan uprising', Independence Square was a huge protest camp occupied by thousands of protesters and protected by makeshift barricades. It had kitchens, first aid posts and broadcasting facilities, as well as stages for speeches, lectures, debates and performances.[194][195] Police assaulted the camp several times, causing further anger.
Yanukovych has been accused, by Amnesty International[196][197] among others, of using the Berkut to threaten, attack, and torture protesters. The Berkut, later disbanded on 25 February 2014, were a special police force under his personal command and were accused of defending Russian interests.[185]
Violence escalated after 16 January 2014, when Yanukovych signed draconian Anti-Protest Laws. The first protesters were killed in fierce clashes with police on Hrushevsky Street on 19–22 January."
I didn't know who that person was, so I had to go look it up. What turned up was a veritable fountain of weird foreign propaganda. Apparently a woman gave out cookies and now bots are here on HN.
She is a weird centerpiece of Russian-pushed conspiracy theories that attempt to convince that a relatively unknown middle manager from the US State Department was a mastermind in a vast conspiracy that pitted Ukraine against Russia, which left Russia no other option than to invade Ukraine and start raping and killing there.
Her name is like one of those obscure, but highly specific factoids that 9/11 truthers, flat-earthers or the chemtrail crowd share with each other and bring up at every opportunity. When someone starts telling you about the melting temperature of steel beams or the height of crematorium chimneys at Auschwitz, it's a clear sign that they've been reading conspiracy theories from the sketchiest corners of the internet. Nuland's name is a similar signal.
Ukraine is acting as a buffer state which prevents the inevitable nuclear confrontation between Russia and the nuclear armed states in Europe. Any nuclear issue will always become a global issue. The oceans protect the US from russias military, but not its missiles.
The present reign of terror and international lawlessness began a few years ago.
It began through unjustified interference in the internal affairs of other nations or the invasion of alien territory in violation of treaties and has now reached a stage where the very foundations of civilization are seriously threatened. The landmarks and traditions which have marked the progress of civilization toward a condition of law, order, and justice are being wiped away.
Without a declaration of war and without warning or justification of any kind civilians, including women and children are being ruthlessly murdered with bombs from the air. In times of so-called peace, ships are being attacked and sunk by submarines without cause or notice. Nations are fomenting and taking sides in civil warfare in nations that have never done them any harm. Nations claiming freedom for themselves deny it to others. Innocent peoples and nations are being cruelly sacrificed to a greed for power and supremacy which is devoid of all sense of justice and humane consideration.
To paraphrase a recent author, "perhaps we foresee a time when men, exultant in the technique of homicide, will rage so hotly over the world that every precious thing will be in danger, every book and picture and harmony, every treasure garnered through two millenniums, the small, the delicate, the defenseless-all will be lost or wrecked or utterly destroyed."
If those things come to pass in other parts of the world, let no one imagine that America will escape, that it may expect mercy, that this Western Hemisphere will not be attacked, and that it will continue tranquilly and peacefully to carry on the ethics and the arts of civilization. If those days come, "there will be no safety by arms, no help from authority, no answer in science. The storm will rage till every flower of culture is trampled and all human beings are leveled in a vast chaos."
If those days are not to come to pass- if we are to have a world in which we can breathe freely and live in amity without fear-the peace-loving nations must make a concerted effort to uphold laws and principles on which alone peace can rest secure. The peace-loving nations must make a concerted effort in opposition to those violations of treaties and those ignorings of humane instincts which today are creating a state of international anarchy and instability from which there is no escape through mere isolation or neutrality.
The old timey grammatical construction makes me ask — is this a quote from the disgraced America First Committee, who fought tooth and nail against American involvement in WW2?
For if America maintains the defense of Europe, she gains influence upon European decision making. Our former hegemony was built upon our role as America, defender of peace and fighter for liberty.
Europe's health care is built upon subsidization by American defense. That is a source of power.
Hey I remember when I thought like this. So what I did was use NextDNS and block every website that was invoking emotional reactions in me for 6 months. Then after 6 months I went back and looked at 'the current thing' they were pushing emotionally. And it was all idiotic because I hadn't been there as they hyped their weak justification/manufactured outrage. Then I re-started from the ground up re-building my positions.
'Europe keeps to defence policy United States setup post WW2' stopped enraging me about 'European freeloaders' when I stopped consuming manufactured outrage infomercials voluntarily. Huge FU shoutout to Instapundit who I followed post 9/11 and took advantage of that!
The Biden/Obama administration and Europe both have their responsibility in alienating Russia. The current administration simply wants to wash its hand off of it as if their was no continuity between Trump America and Democratic America. Now the US words are meaningless.
But you seem to regard "Was Alienated by Somebody" status as license to ignore treaties and start wars. Might that same standard apply, when you don't happen to favor the aggressor over the victim?
They are a tiny fringe minority that gets humiliated whenever they try to debate actual experts. Here's Mearsheimer getting smacked down in front of a live audience by the Polish foreign minister: https://youtu.be/ivcSVG5eCeQ?t=2100
