Alternatively, another second order effect is can't sip latte anymore because you're orchestrating 8 bots do the work and you're back to 80%-100% time saturation.
So far in my career I have always had more requests coming in than implementations going out. If I can go 3 or 10 times faster, than I will still have plenty of work. Especially for the slew of ideas that are never even considered to put towards a dev, because it's already considered to be too low value to have it even be considered to be build. Or the ideas that are so far fetched they were never considered feasible. I am not worried work will dry up.
What I believe is going to be interesting is what happens when non-engineers adopt building with agentic AI. Maybe 70 or 80% of their needs will be met without anyone else directly involved. My suspicion is that it will just create more work: making those generated apps work in a trustworthy manner, giving the agents more access to build context and make decisions, turning those one off generated apps into something maintainable, etc.
Exactly this. Even if right now you, bottom level wage earning grunt, get to lighten your workload for a fleeting second, sit back and enjoy the latte it's only but a fleeting second until the capital class tighten the screws.
Most people will get laid off and made redundant and those who remain are going to have to run faster than ever to produce wealth for the capital owners.
Yea, I don’t think that will be the case. Spreadsheets simplified the work of junior finance people who did all the work by hand before. But more people work in finance now than before.
people seem to have a inability to predict second and third order effects
the first order effect is "I can sip a latte while the bot does my job for me"... well, great I suppose, while it lasts
but the second order effect is: unless you're in the top 10%, you will now lose your job, permanently
and the third order effect is the economy collapses as it is built on consumer spending