But predicting something without giving a timeframe is completely useless. Imagine if this had influenced Microsoft's strategy from 1993. They'd have missed out on the enormous influence of the PC, whose recent competitors such as tablets and smartphones have only really surfaced in the last 5 years.
Actually, Microsoft did move to the tablet before anyone else. They created a tablet version of Windows 10 years ago. Do you remember those? I had some friends who had those machines; mostly in the form of laptops that had a screen that would rotate into a tablet form factor, with a stylus for input.
Those were a market failure. It wasn't until Apple re-invented the tablet, and Android showed that there is actually a tablet market and not just an iPad market, that Microsoft re-entered the game with the Surface.
Yeah, I remember those machines and did even see one used in person once.
Aside from any Apple magic and all the associated style factors, I think technology was just not ready then; they were just a laptop with a reversible screen, which was too heavy and bulky to be used in the ways people actually want to use a tablet rather than a laptop. You might have gotten two hours of battery life, for the first week of its life. And the stylus wasn't exactly inspiring either - it smacked more of a way to easily translate mouse-driven software than the best way to interact with the device. That's a lot more obvious in hindsight, of course.
I believe they were reacting to competition, either the GridPad or the Momenta (I remember the Momenta getting lots of press for its innovative GUI - you can see it on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0XE08BjQDQ)
