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At the limit, I'm not sure those two are distinguishable.

There was a story a while back about a law firm that discovered its escrow account was empty, even though it should have had millions in it. Turns out a legal secretary had gotten caught up in a Nigerian scam. She started out sending a small amount of her own money. They'd tell her they just needed a little more and then she'd get it all back plus a lot more. As she got deeper in trouble, at some point she started "borrowing" from her employer. Incompetence led to pressure that created ethical failure.

My guess (as uninformed as anybody's) is that Karpeles started out merely incompetent and with underdeveloped ethics. As he got in deeper, he just focused on trying to stay out of trouble in the short term. That led to massive snowballing of problems. His very modest helpings of competence and ethical backbone were quickly overrun, demoted in priority to the same level as getting enough niacin in his diet. The best liars I know aren't people who know that they're lying; they're people who focus on saying what you want to hear while ignoring entirely what the truth might be.

For those unfamiliar with the Dunning-Kruger effect, it also seems relevant here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect



For those effected, the two are not distinguishable. If the bank robs you or loses your money, it is still a loss. When it comes to the law, neither is "I don't know" perhaps gives some lenience at sentencing.

When your business involves holding money on deposit for people, you have a very high moral and legal standard to follow. Unfortunately the very legal leverage and fractional reserve lending by financial institutions makes that line very blurry. A single technical misstep and you are now an insolvent ponzi scheme. Being lazy or "over your head" in this area is like laying down in front of a moving truck.

US laws relating to money laundering and finance are very strict, accidents and lapses still lead to convictions. I don't know anything about Japanese law. I'll take a page from the BNP Paribas case and say that because Mt Gox used US dollars it falls under US jurisdiction and must also follow US law, not just Japan's.


There's a critical difference in this case. If the lost bitcoins are now in the possession of some random hackers then Karpeles is incompetent. If they are in fact effectively in the possession of Karpeles then he is a competent thief. It's hard to tell but in the future they may catch him cashing some coins in to buy a yacht or pay the rent or some such at which point it would be distinguishable in a meaningful way. Being in Japan I guess he'd get away with it but in the US they'd be tapping his phones and so on.


Seems likely, any references that support your theory? Many people on /r/bitcoin and such places seemed to think that he outright stole it, but could be pure speculation (I didn't follow the story, don't take my word for it).


This is because embezzlement is rampant in the Bitcoin space, e.g.: Inputs.io, TradeFortress, MyBitcoin, Silk Road 2.0, GBL, I could go on. Embezzlement, as in you get "hacked", oops, we lost everyone's money, everyone move along, nothing to see here.

Anyone who thinks Mark Karpeles isn't guilty of embezzlement at a minimum - MINIMUM - just isn't viewing the situation in light of the massive amounts of operator fraud that have historically taken place, not to mention copious amounts of evidence suggesting Mark Karpeles' talking points have been entirely fabricated from the beginning. Remember, he stole over a _billion_ dollars: 850,000 * 1200. He only relinquished control of 200,000 of those 850,000 after being called out on it by the community. At this point the legal system is the least of Karpeles' worries.


Why would he want to be a laughingstock digital billionaire under police scrutiny in bankruptcy court when he's already a successful business owner with tens of millions? It really doesn't make sense that he up and decided to steal them. If he did it he'll die having spent less of his stolen fortune than he would have spent of his legitimate fortune.

Seems a lot more likely he's an idiot who got in over his head.


Sorry, but your line of thinking takes for granted that criminality doesn't pay. On the contrary. Having a hidden fortune is more valuable than having a pubilc fortune, objectively in that you pay less taxes and forego frivilous lawsuits and subjectively in that you can walk around less paranoid of kidnappings. Second of all, there's no way to stop Karpeles from mixing his coins. People who don't have much experience using Bitcoin are often operating in the PayPal model, where it takes a trusted third party to spend your money and even if not, the other person is known. In the Bitcoin space, there is no trusted third party, and if your coins are mixed and you and the other person are behind Tor, there's effectively no identifiable information involved in the transaction.

Embezzling Bitcoins is the perfect crime. As has been mentioned already, Karpeles has a history of computer fraud, so embezzling digital money would be right up his alley. He had the means, motive and opportunity to do so. When you consider the rampant embezzlement in a historical context ... it's pretty much case closed. Your argument boils down to "this time it's different". Also, laughing stock digital billionaire? Sorry but there's no such thing as a laughing stock billionaire. I'd take a billion knowing it would make me the "laughing stock" of the world, and so would anyone with a brain.

If the community hadn't called Karpeles out on using transaction malleability as a fictional excuse for losing 850,000 BTC, and we had all believed Karpeles, he would in all likelihood be looking at Japanese bankruptcy court followed by a lifetime of traveling the world with a hidden fortune rivaling Satoshi's.


What is he going to do with a billion that he couldn't already do with $10m? He can't go from bankrupt to owning a $100m mansion or yacht or business without anyone noticing and investigating.

> I'd take a billion knowing it would make me the "laughing stock" of the world, and so would anyone with a brain.

Not if I had $10m. Marginal utility of those last $990m is easily less than the hit to my reputation and the cost of constantly fearing for my freedom and physical safety. Especially when I can't buy anything large and obvious with them.


If embezzling Bitcoins was the perfect crime, there wouldn't be an active police investigation.


There isn't an active police investigation, not in Japan at least. In Japan, there are bankruptcy proceedings scheduled, and absolutely no police investigation into embezzlement that anyone knows of.

A court requested Karpeles appear in Texas to face possible charges for criminal wrongdoing, but again, this was only after he had been called out by the wider Bitcoin community for fabricating excuses. FYI: Karpeles turned down the offer.

Fact is embezzling Bitcoin has unquestionably _been_ the perfect crime for everyone who has attempted it. Karpeles made copious amounts of errors on his way to embezzling coins, and there's still people out there like yourself that would allow him to get away with it. Imagine if he had been anonymous. Imagine if he hadn't used the transaction malleability excuse. Imagine if the MtGox private database hadn't been leaked. Imagine if there were no investigative reporters in the wider Bitcoin community! Again, if that were the case, which thankfully it has not been the case, Karpeles would be looking at simple Japanese bankruptcy proceedings followed by a lifetime of world travel with a hidden fortune rivaling Satoshi's.


> A: The police are investigating the case so I won’t be able to say much. But if asked, I’m willing to show any bitcoin entrepreneurs how I did it wrong, so they won’t repeat the same mistake.

Is this part of the interview a lie then? I'm seriously asking, I don't know and you seem to have some information as to this aspect. It seems like a silly thing to lie about in an interview though.

there's still people out there like yourself that would allow him to get away with it

I'm not sure what you are talking about, but you seem to be projecting some argument on to me that I haven't made. I was simply calling out a bit of hyperbole.

Imagine if the MtGox private database hadn't been leaked. Imagine if there were no investigative reporters in the wider Bitcoin community! Again, if that were the case, which thankfully it has not been the case...

Exactly, there's quite a bit of scrutiny and investigation at this point. Hardly what I would call the perfect crime.

Also, aren't these bitcoins traceable to wherever they are eventually used? Is it really that good of a crime when a) you'll forever face public scrutiny (to varying degrees) by people with a vested interest in recovering the money, b) may have an investigation as to your conduct, and c) your stolen money is forever traceable?


That part of the interview alludes to Karpeles claiming he was "physically attacked" causing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses no doubt.

I only meant to imply that many have read this WSJ interview without any historical context.

At this point, there may be scrutiny, but just a few months ago, people all over the place were claiming the US government must've seized MtGox's funds. If you look at @magicaltux's twitter feed, he even tried to fan flames on that government conspiracy theory in the same tweet where he began fabricating the excuse of being "physically attacked".

To anyone who hasn't been following the MtGox fiasco since mid-2013, which is when MtGox first started having "liquidity issues", it may very well seem like Karpeles has been charged with fraud. No, that isn't the case. Karpeles has been screaming "Transaction malleability" (BS), "US government stole it" (BS), and now "Physical attacker stole it". The Bitcoin community actually went along with each of Karpeles excuses, but public opinion has just recently began to spell out FRAUD, loudly and repeatedly. There is still no criminal investigation of Karpeles for fraud, just a lot of loud people screaming it on the Internet, because it is obvious and because it has happened so many times before in the Bitcoin space.

The truth is, Bitcoins aren't traceable if you know what you're doing over Tor. Anonymous spending is very much possible. Running a Bitcoin exchange with a proprietary database and large shared wallet with thousands upon thousands of BTC in it, is actually the perfect vehicle for coin mixing and I would be shocked if Karpeles didn't mix in personal BTC withdrawals over his years of running MtGox. It's really simple, transfer BTC into an exchange account with fake or no identifiable info attached to the account, wait a bit, and withdraw fresh coins. With judicious use of Tor, you have fresh new coins, and the original coins are tumbled around a gigantic shared wallet. There's just no practical way of linking BTC addresses to your identity if you know what you're doing.


The Bitcoin community actually went along with each of Karpeles excuses

I haven't been following the bitcoin community reaction, but from what I remember reading here, most people seemed VERY critical of his explanations of what happened.

The truth is, Bitcoins aren't traceable if you know what you're doing over Tor

Do you mind explaining this a bit? My understanding is that there's a trail of all transactions (transfers, I guess) of a bitcoin, so there's some tracking of the history of the funds. If it's a matter of mixing small amounts into larger shared wallets, it seems like what's needed (if it doesn't already exist) is a curated list of known bad bitcoins. If there was a public service to check whether the source bitcoin is blacklisted (or what percentage it's blacklisted, if mixed into a larger wallet), then sites accepting bitcoin trasnfers could make decisions on whether to accept it or not. This obviously would only work if a) people were willing to accept this list as bad, b) doing the legwork of tracking the history of a coin back isn't too computationally expensive, c) it was adopted soon, before the coins got too mixed in and how "bad" they are is diluted. It's then in your best interest to reject bad coins because it taints your wallet.

But maybe I've got a few assumptions in there that are completely bunk. I'm mostly an outsider to this.

In any case, the fact that bitcoin has a trail built in seems like it offers numerous ways to reduce the attractiveness of stealing them by making them harder to convert into goods and currency.


Have the missing bitcoins moved at all?


No logical person would give up $3-5M+ per month in growing legit income for $400M+ in dirty money with a risk of lifetime of jail. Not when they controlled 60%+ of all btc trades at the time and the VC/private equity rush at the time would have easily cashed him out legitimately for a value higher than the total value of deposits.

The whole entire point of money laundering is to get to the legit income, it would be unheard of to go the other way especially when you own 100% of the company, are high profile and your future spending will be extremely scrutinized.

Simplest explanation is best: Karpeles was incompetent and distracted, didn't trust others, wrote horrible code nowhere near suitable for a bitcoin exchange and when he noticed a year later that he had been robbed attempted to cover it up.


A generous estimate would put accumulating 850,000 BTC in profits through exchange fees at 85,000,000 BTC in volume. That assumes a 1% fee on all trades, which is already unsustainable in the current exchange market. It also assumes 0 operating expenses, but hey we're being generous in this calculation.

To do 85,000,000 in BTC on MtGox would mean averaging over 230,000 BTC of daily trading volume for 365 days. For context, most Bitcoin exchanges these days are doing 20% of that on a record day. So if we're super duper generous in our calculations, we'd assume it would take Karpeles 5 years to accumulate the amount he stole in a legal way. This further assumes two equally incredibly unlikely things:

1. MtGox stays ahead of the competition

2. MtGox maintains a 1% trading fee

Remember that in April of 2013, which is when MtGox had its second huge trading engine crash, there was already significant demand amongst traders to move away from MtGox, which is precisely how MtGox started rapidly losing marketshare.

The TLDR is, Karpeles wouldn't have made nearly as much money by engaging in legal business. He would've found it much more tempting to close MtGox before having to deal with burdensome regulations coming out of America, a trend which started in 2013. And even if he had tried to deal with regulators, MtGox most likely wouldn't have been able to maintain its number 1 position for much longer.

So the fact of the matter is he was looking at spending the next 10-20 years pursuing a business he wasn't prepared to run, or he could've just taken the money and walked away, declaring bankruptcy.

> Simplest explanation is best: Karpeles was incompetent and distracted, didn't trust others, wrote horrible code nowhere near suitable for a bitcoin exchange and when he noticed a year later that he had been robbed attempted to cover it up.

I find it absolutely, positively _unbelievable_ that 850,000 BTC were stolen out of a hot wallet. If it had been due to terrible coding practices, he would've gone to that as his first alibi rather than claiming 850,000 BTC were lost due to"transaction malleability". If the code was the likely culprit, he could and would have proved it.


While you're right that embezzlement is rampant, it's possible the embezzlement was by an employee rather than Karpelès himself. It doesn't sound like they had very strict change control policies.


A private key is 256 bits, right? A determined insider given the chance to visually see the key once per day could probably take the whole thing out in his brain in a few weeks.


The theory I've heard along those lines is that he lost the Bitcoins years ago due to incompetence and was trying to make back the losses so that he wouldn't have to own up to it. You can imagine how that strategy might have spiraled out of control as the price of Bitcoins increased.

It's mostly speculation. But nearly everything we know at this point is speculation, other than that Karpeles has a history of both technical and ethical shortcomings, which basically means that anything is possible.


Without any specific evidence, the null hypothesis ought be "did small mistakes that kept on compounding on themselves." It's quite normal human behavior.

If there were an oracle that could answer, I'd comfortably bet even odds that he started out with some rather small mistake, and then thought "well, I just need to keep things afloat a while to cover for it, and then we will all be good." Oh, I'll borrow a little money from my spouse. Oh, I'll just take some money from my neighbor without him knowing, but I'll get it back and return it to him later.

Lots of gambling addicts flame out this way, and my gut tells me that the Bitcoin community has more than its fair share of gambling-addictive personalities.




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