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Plotting a "Year vs Years away" graph would then give us a good estimation on when we can expect to meet that expectation.


If xkcd hasnt made that chart yet, it should!


Although this is related to artificial intelligence, http://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAI.pdf is an interesting study on expert predictions of future technology.


Hmm, although every successive year would contain (most) of the previous year's results, so there'll be a certain inertia.




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