I agree that's an issue, but I was thinking more of the decisions of the people who hire the contractors. The right Agile approach to a project is to structure it as a series of small wins and losses, rather than rolling the bones on one big win/loss. It's my hope that calculus will appeal to career-minded officials, especially since the Agile approach lets you demonstrate value earlier (thus reducing drama), lets you bet more on your wins, and dramatically reduces the chances of large failures.