I think there will be a hybrid model. Owning a driverless car will still be a very commonplace thing, car ownership is too ingrained in the American mindset to just let it go.
However, I believe owning a car will also come to be seen as an investment option, like owning property. What if your car was loaned out to a taxi service while you're at work every day?
The taxi service has no drivers, no cars, no real capital. It's just a website with a server coordinating cars to people and to destinations.
As a vehicle owner, you are given a share of the profits for the utilization of your capital. Sure there are a lot of kinks to work out, but I could see this being a very common thing.
Renting out your car while you're not using it negates the advantages of owning one that GP points out. In addition, you're now taking on the risk of damage and the onus of maintenance for a car that's used as a taxi. I don't think this will be a popular option.
Also if you want to go home now, or go to the store now and it's rented out by some one: you're basically fucked.
You can program a range limit and certain hours (be no farther than 30 miles away by 4pm and not in use) sure but when anything unexpected comes up (on either end) you don't have a car for X period of time.
Even just sharing the car has this problem, oh it can drive back home empty, but the logistics of making sure it can drop Bob off drive home get Alice drive her some were pick Bob back up up drop him at home in time to go get Alice are only barely more convenient than "sorry I need the car today" for twice the mileage cost natch.
I don't think within-family-car-sharing would be a HUGE deal, certainly. But there are a lot of situations in which I end up chauffeuring my fiancée or vice versa because one of us needs to get to point A, but the other needs the car for the day. And there's lots of little friction points in terms of lining up our schedules there. It's not a huge pain point, but my car would be noticeably more valuable to me if it handled these situations for itself.
It might not be wildly convenient, but it's even less convenient for me to drive my fiancée to where she needs to go and then drive back.
uhhh, essentially we already have this service. It's called Lyft, and it is wildly popular. The only difference, is that the owner has to drive the car.
The problem is that you'd have such a huge supply of available cars between 8-6pm M-F that you'd never be able to turn a profit if driverless cars became commonplace.
The parking lot at my office complex has more capacity than my city's entire public transit and taxi system combined. Releasing that into the market just means razor thin profits with the risk that someone will trash your car.
However, I believe owning a car will also come to be seen as an investment option, like owning property. What if your car was loaned out to a taxi service while you're at work every day?
The taxi service has no drivers, no cars, no real capital. It's just a website with a server coordinating cars to people and to destinations.
As a vehicle owner, you are given a share of the profits for the utilization of your capital. Sure there are a lot of kinks to work out, but I could see this being a very common thing.